The Decade in Review - what changed!
We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.
- Bill Gates
The end of the year is usually a good time to sit back and reflect upon how the last year went by. But this year is a special one because not only is it the end of the year but also it is the end of this decade. I started thinking about how life was at the beginning of this decade and how has it changed over the course of the last ten years.
Bangalore had not become Bengaluru yet. It was still the startup capital of India, but had only a few tens of startups. And the word startup was still frowned upon by the elders in most families. There was no WhatsApp or Instagram. Or Uber, or OLA. Neither Trump, nor Modi in power too.
Unimaginable, right?
The world was simply a different place back then.
So, I thought maybe it is a good time to sit back and reflect on how this decade has gone by. Here are a few big things that happened in the last ten years which, according to me, fundamentally changed our way of life.
1. Rise of Smartphones
There was a time when iPhone could run only 1 app at one time. You might wonder today why would anyone pay for such a device. Multi-tasking was introduced for the first time with iPhone 4 in 2010. If this decade is remembered for one thing, it will be smart phones. This was the peak smartphone era. While both Android & iPhone launched around 2007, it is in this decade that they came to their true revolutionary self.
Apple & google perfected the technology & every aspect of the user experience like screen size, battery life, camera, etc. The Chinese & Koreans perfected the art of manufacturing at scale which ensured mass production. Close to three-quarters of adults on earth already have a smartphone, and the rest will get one in the next few years. The smartphones today are much more powerful and capable than the laptops and computers we use at work. It’s a classic case of disruptive innovation
One of the big implications of such widespread adoption of smartphones is that our world has become mobile first.
Our default device is mobile, not computer.
Our default communication tool is WhatsApp, not Email.
Our default camera is the phone camera, not a digital camera.
Our default photo sharing tool is Instagram, not Flickr.
Our default gaming device is the phone itself, not Xbox.
And the fundamental shift in behaviour is mobile: the most interesting place to be in no longer in front of your computer, it’s to go out in the world with a computer in your hand. And that’s a big big change.
2. The Death of Digital Cameras & The Rise of Selfie
Look at what the rise of smartphones have done to digital cameras
With smartphone camera technology getting so much better, its no surprise that people have stopped buying standalone cameras altogether. This led to a new way of clicking pictures - SELFIE
I guess it was the famous Oscar picture by Bradley Cooper which coined the term
and then the world exploded.
3. Connectivity
At the beginning of the decade, there was only 2G. It might look excruciatingly slow and very painful in the hindsight, but at that time, it was like magic. As opposed to syncing google maps before leaving home, you could change destination and find directions on the go.
Over the course of a few years, 3G came along and then came 4G. The combination of very capable machines like smartphones and high speed connectivity of 4G, fundamentally changed every aspect of our lives. I believe a change of such magnitude in society last happened thirty years ago when computers met the internet or a hundred years ago when Henry Ford built a car for the masses. Continue reading and you will find out why.
4. Music Streaming
iPod launched in 2004 and moved the world from storing music on a disc to an iPod. Somewhere in this decade, thanks to 4G & Smartphones, people stopped storing music altogether and shifted to streaming music on the go. Of course, this is a result of the combination of a few trends mentioned above - smart phones meet high speed internet connection.
(See the shrinking navy blue bar and the growing teal bar in the chart above)
The end result is that the customer experience is so much better with streaming, for most people anyway, that they simply won’t go back to downloading & storing music.
The last few years have also seen a rise in a new format of consumption - Podcasts & Audio Books - which I believe is here to stay. It should reach its pinnacle in the coming few years.
5. End of Cable TV & The Rise of Netflix
Cable TV has been one of the oldest business models that worked, and one that was supposed to be truly disrupted by the internet. Yet, for the last thirty years, it hasn’t happened. Something truly changed in the last few years, which has brought about this change. Let’s understand this better.
TV can be broken up into four parts
- Content Creation - act of creating/filming/producing a show
- Content Aggregation - packaging of various TV shows into a single offering which is done by production houses.
- Delivery - is the actual transfer of content to your TV.
- Device - the actual device you want it on, which has always been the television set.
Traditionally, the first two things were taken care of by the production houses like Sony, Zee, Star, etc. and Delivery was taken care of by cable operators, Tata Sky, etc. And the device has always been the television set. Yes, it has changed from CRT to flat screen, but it has always been a television set.
What has truly changed in this decade is the following -
- Both content creation and aggregation is now taken up by the likes of Netflix, Amazon, and Disney.
- Delivery is taken over by internet thanks to great bandwidth speeds provided by 4G
- Thanks to the large screen size and very powerful hardware, mobile has replaced TV as the primary device of consumption.
In fact, mobile & internet has made the experience far more superior. With Netflix & hot star, you have a much wider selection available to you at your own convenience. It is because of this, you can watch shows like Game of Thrones without it actually launching on TV in India.
This has fundamentally changed the way we consume content and there is no going back from this.
6. The Rental Economy & Everything As A Service
The proliferation of mobile has led to another societal change in the last few years - The sharing economy.
The emergence of app-based ride hailing services like Uber & Ola in India, Lyft in the US, Grab in South East Asia have transformed the way we think about travelling within a city. In fact, hailing a cab has become so convenient that it has eliminated the need to actually own a car. While the latter has not fully played out yet, but I am quite certain that in a few years it will.
And the same phenomenon of renting/sharing makes for a compelling proposition in other walks of life too. Why buy a house or furniture, or home appliances or even classy clothes. Companies like Nestaway, Furlenco, Stage3, etc. in India and Zillow, Rent-a-center, Rent a runway etc. in the US are making this happen big time. It’s still not as big as ride hailing, but the trend is unmistakable and one that is here to stay.
7. Travel
When it comes to travel, last decade has been a mixed bag. Travel obviously has been a big beneficiaries of the technology trends of this decade. But I find the changes to be iterative rather than disruptive.
- Travel guides have been replaced by online trip planning. But trip planning itself is not a big phenomenon. A lot of travellers do not pre-plan their trip in a big way.
- Travel agents have been replaced big time by the OTAs, yet for complex trips and for first time travellers it still continues to be the primary option.
- Photo clicking and sharing has changed quite drastically. Instead of clicking pictures through the trip and uploading to Flickr after post-processing, realtime sharing on Instagram and other social media has become the new norm.
- Thanks to better internet connectivity, Google Maps has become the best tool to find your way around in a new city. It is now impossible to get lost in a new city as long as you are connected.
- The rise of Airbnb has opened a new accommodation segment. Now it’s possible to experience a place as the locals of the city would do it. It is definitely a much cheaper option and some might even say, more authentic way to experience a new city.
Experience driven travel is indeed on the rise. Particularly amongst millennials. Airbnb itself has been focusing on experiences since last couple of years.
Like I said, there have been no paradigm shifts in travel, but certainly, there are early signs. Having said that, one big highlight of this decade is that travel has become quite mainstream. The number of people travelling domestically and internationally has continuously increased. I expect the same to continue in the future too. Needless to say, this is great news for us.
And while its hard to predict the future, it is my strong belief that the next decade is going to bring disruptive changes in the travel. I am particularly excited about what happens when 5G meets AR/VR meets wearables/IOT.
So, there you have it - This was the decade that went by.
And what a decade this has been! Come to think of it, could there be a better time to live in? I read it somewhere that an average man today lives a life which is far more comfortable than that of a king 500 years ago. It has been possible only because of the advancements in technology. I hope the next decade builds on top of the achievements of the past decade and take humanity to new heights.
Do write back and tell me what were the highlights of this decade for you.
Best,
Kaddy
PS - As you would have noticed by now, we have made a BIG change to the ROTW email format. To make the longer posts more readable, I have added a small theme. If the email is breaking on your mobile client, please do send me the screenshots and I will try to rectify the issue. Hope you like this new theme. Thanks!