Wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it - Herbert Simon

The weather department now has more data than it ever had, yet have less predictability in their forecast than ever. Likewise, despite news available instantly through social media or the 24x7 news channels, it is impossible for us to separate information from misinformation. And the plethora of choices available when shopping online doesn’t necessarily make it any easier for us to find our preferred product.

In this modern world, data is abundant, thanks to connectivity; and the more data you look at, the more noise you are likely to get. More data - like the effect of Marilyn Monroe pictures in the room, on boost in demand - can fool you into building correlations where none exist.

It is a bit counter-intuitive, but more information can sometimes be less helpful in decision making than having less information.

And if there is a strong correlation, it’s often evident within a smaller subset of data. One of the founders I worked with early on in my career was a big fan of sample testing. He would play with the product from time to time and randomly try out few flows. If he found too many bugs in the first few tries, he would assume the product to be buggy, stop feature development altogether, and focus on its stability. I have borrowed this philosophy from him, and to this day, that rule has never failed me.

When it comes to decision making - less is more, most of the time.

Sometimes, when we can’t find compelling reasons to do something or avoid something, we tend to ask for more data. Do realize that looking for more data might not necessarily help.

It’s a mistake to think that if we have more data, we’d make better decisions. In reality, effective decision making doesn’t require a ton of data. It’s not more data you are looking for; what you seek is more certainty.

And certainty can be built by having better decision-making frameworks (probably a topic for another ROTW) not by looking at a lot of data.

Best,
Kaddy

A Barbell Approach to Everyday Life

Quantity Has A Quality Of Its Own